The Threat Of AI In The Workplace
Artificial intelligence is one of the most exciting areas of technology at the moment, with companies ranging from tech firms to banks investing billions into its development [1]. However, AI isn’t all good news.
On the face of it, increased automation is hugely appealing. Increased efficiency, reduced operating costs and more make it very exciting for business leaders. These reduced operating costs come from needing fewer employees to carry out tasks, and money is saved on their wages. For example, driverless trucks would mean no need to pay the wages of the delivery drivers, and “chatbots” would reduce the need for support staff in every area from tech support at Microsoft to customer services at Macy’s (Macy’s is actually currently working IBM on its Watson project for use as an AI personal shopper [2]).
Furthermore, it is not just jobs such as tech support and trucking that will be impacted. Many jobs that require years of high-level training will be under threat. One such example is in law – how is a criminal lawyer supposed to compete with a machine that has near-instantaneous access to thousands of case files dating back decades? [Of course, considering criminal justice brings in to question the idea of a lawyer appealing to a jury’s emotions and so on, but for the purpose of this example we will leave emotions out of the question!]
The problem with removing the need for these jobs is that it could (and most likely will) lead to massive unemployment. Business leaders such as Zuckerberg and Musk have debated the magnitude of this threat at length [3], but the fact that it is a threat is irrefutable. There are a number of solutions being considered at the moment and the frontrunner is UBI, or “Universal Basic Income”, which is advocated by Zuckerberg. Essentially, this is a form of social security in which all citizens of a country receive regular, unconditional handouts. There are a number of problems with this idea, many of which were highlighted in a commission of the German parliament in 2013 [4]. These include decreased workforce motivation, expensive restructuring of social security, pensions and taxation, increase immigration and inevitably an increase in taxes, which would deter investment in the country (triggering a downward spiral). As such, it was deemed “unrealizable”.
Now, I’m no economist or politician, so I’m not going to try to advocate for or against Universal Basic Income. It will be received differently in countries with different economies, more vulnerability to the threat of artificial intelligence and different “benefit cultures”. However, what is clear is that there is a growing need for a solution, as evidenced by recent (heated) discussions between tech leaders in Silicon Valley [3]. Artificial intelligence is a new and exciting opportunity, but the threats it poses are no longer the stuff of science fiction.
References:
[1]: Gil Press, “Forrester Predicts Investment In Artificial Intelligence Will Grow 300% In 2017”, Forbes, 11/1/2016, available at www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2016/11/01/forrester-predicts-investment-in-artificial-intelligence-will-grow-300-in-2017/#37c005665509
[2]: Rachel Arthur, “Macy’s Teams With IBM Watson For AI-Powered Mobile Shopping Assistant”, Forbes, 7/20/2016, available at www.forbes.com/sites/rachelarthur/2016/07/20/macys-teams-with-ibm-watson-for-ai-powered-mobile-shopping-assistant/#67836b417f41
[3]: Ian Bogost, “Why Zuckerberg and Musk Are Fighting About the Robot Future”, The Atlantic, 7/27/2017, available at www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/musk-vs-zuck/535077/
[4]: Deutscher Bundestag, “Problematische Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsanreize”, (in German), available at www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2010/31904334_kw45_pa_petitionen/203030
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16 comments on “The Threat Of AI In The Workplace”
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Hi Chris! Interesting article and I must agree with you that despite Zuckerberg and Musk’s claims that AI will not cause mass unemployment, it is a huge threat. However, I wanted to get your views on how the job sector will shift in response. Personally I feel that there are some jobs that AI can never cover; mainly those that require strong human empathy and connection – for example, nurses and people working with the elderly. As long as there are jobs that AI cannot cover, there will still exist the need for human employment. How can we work alongside robots? This will present a whole new challenge to team dynamics. It seems to be that jobs requiring human empathy will become extremely valuable in the years to come.
Shiv Bhardwaj
(MS&E 238A)
I totally agree that AI in the future may replace lots of traditional jobs, especially repeatable and simple work. Some people might might worry that AI might take their jobs, leading to the increase unemployment. However, AI also create lots of new jobs as well. it will change the way that people work.
Great post, Chris! I agree that there are many jobs at risk, including those with high levels of training required. I recently saw an article that Stanford and Adobe had created an AI platform to edit videos! (https://www.digitaltrends.com/photography/adobe-stanford-ai-video-editor/) This is a non-trivial task and one that takes many man-hours especially with all the new media content available on so many new platforms including Youtube and Netflix. It is interesting to think of possible applications of AI and how it can improve our quality of life, but at the same time it is alarming to think of the loss of jobs due to the rise of AI.
AI technology has forever changed job market conditions. Will AI technology will take over every job? I sincerely doubt it. However, the IT, finance, communications, healthcare and police sector of the economy will, for sure, see changes in the near future. There are some jobs, such as surgery, we can never allow full autonomy to AI robots. For example, organisms are constantly evolving, presenting new problems, diseases and conditions never before seen. An AI robot will not have the creativity to tackle such issues outside of its pattern-like design. Unfortunately, this will result in many people having their jobs replaced. Moreover, I do believe business owners will lower the wages of workers who can be supplemented with an AI robot because of this threat in their job market. Unfortunately, this will most likely end up in those few workers being replaced inevitably as the funds from the cut wages would go towards capital investment for more AI machinery. In the end, the amount of jobs created will hold to be a fewer amount than those lost because of this AI technology. The result, a surplus of produced products for cheaper prices as the average variable cost of such machinery is drastically lowered-exponentially increased profits for business owners. This will have a massive effect in our economy as well as technology and production itself.
Interesting post, Chris! You bring up a good point–I agree that AI will certainly send shockwaves through the economy as certain jobs now are automated. However, I think this concerns are inflated; many people felt the same way and were concerned that there’d be mass unemployment with the introduction of the computer and robots. The key to avoid mass unemployment is to ensure those who are employed in at-risk sectors have easy access to retraining and education. Rhode Island, New York, Tennessee, and Oregon all offer free community college classes for those who are able to maintain a minimum 2.5. This reduces the barriers for entry for those who many not be able to afford retraining to change industries. I am confident that although AI will certainly eliminate certain jobs, having a strong, national education/retraining policy will help those affected find new employment.
Interesting post, Chris! This question has now become increasingly urgent. When AlphaGo first appeared, what people see is only a narrow scenario where AI was applied to. But now we have seen some loss of jobs, Like translators. There is no doubt that there is going to be more.
But we can create something smarter does not necessarily mean we should create anything smarter. Take the practice of law for example. The way human beings think is logical, while the way AI operates is correlative. If human beings cannot accept the correlative way of thinking, it would be impossible for people to accept the verdict an AI machine gives. Because AI cannot logically give reasons why this is the case. We should be clear that AI is a means, not an end.
Excellent post! I am reminded of an old Twilight Zone episode starring Burgess Meredith entitled, “The Obsolete Man,” which aired on 2 Jun 1961. As I recall, Meredith played the part of a librarian in a totalitarian society in which all books were outlawed; as person whose skills were no longer needed, HE was no longer needed.
In my own experience, the vast majority of professions evolve and new variants arise. For instance, in the many discussions we’ve had in the class involving electric vehicles, I don’t think anyone has asked what happens to those who service automobiles, i.e., the traditional mechanic? In my own lifetime, we’ve witnessed change in which most automobiles ran on gasoline powered carbureted internal combustion engines to much smaller, highly automated, computer-controlled fuel-injected engines and, within the past decade or so, to a sizeable contingent of electric vehicles from many manufacturers. Does the automobile mechanic still have a profession? Yes! But, the skillset to deliver services, the types of services provided, and the tools with which to deliver them are much different now than fifty years ago.
In my opinion, the same thing will happen to those professions that will experience changes through more sophisticated automation and AI-based decision making.
Well written!
I agree that AI could lead to massive unemployment. However, I do not agree with Zuckerberg’s approach, for it is too broad and would result in massive government spending.
I find it interesting that Macy’s is working with IBM on a personal shopper. Though, I am not sure how they will apply this service.
Hi Chris,
My biggest worry about AI is that we will loose the opportunity to work on projects and apply our minds and creativity. On the other hand, assuming that the economic nuances of a universal basic income are handled correctly, it can make ways in achieving social justice. I would not be worried about a world where I can find an outlet for my creativity and go to sleep knowing everyone can afford basic living standards. 🙂
Another thing that gets me thinking though is that as much as computers will be able to have better power to uncover hidden patterns, they still need to be taught like humans. I think when it comes to pushing the boundaries of science, we will still find the human brain to be add the bleeding edge.
Have a nice end of the quarter,
Sara D.
MS&E 238A
Spec-ta-cu-lar post once again Chris!
As you’ve listed above, the use of AI can potentially change the way business run and increase their productivity. A change will always have a knock on effect and in this case, the risk of an increase in unemployment.
However, my view of this is that it doesn’t really matter at all. I’m not saying unemployment is not an issue, however just recall the time when machinery was first introduced. There were similar impressions that machinery would cause more unemployment even though the introduction would also improve the efficiency. Today, nearly all organisations incorporate machinery in one way or another and nobody mentions that machinery is the cause of unemployment.
Similarly, the introduction of AI could potentially lead to an increase in unemployment however i believe we will adapt, just like we did after the introduction of machinery. When the advantage greatly outweighs the disadvantage, we cannot ignore it.
Taking these points into account, the introduction of AI could be the next step in the way we as humans operate.
AI in the workforce is not unlike what has happened in some of the pipe fitter industry. A local Arizona mechanical contractor moved to laser welding machines in his fab shop. They can produce far more pipe welds at a faster rate and usually the same, if not better, quality. I had asked the manager while on a tour if there was pushback from the local welders. He said no, and that they still employ a number of certified welders to operate the machines and inspect the welds.
Some jobs will be eliminated, but other jobs will be modified. It’s up to the folks in those particular fields to understand the shift and adapt, look for new opportunities.
Some of you say that there are jobs/functions that AI will never be able to do, but I think it is unrealistic to assume that AI will never be able to handle these jobs. If you read this blog post about the likely future developments within AI, you might (like me) begin to think that we could have AI that could even do tasks such as caring for the elderly.
Btw, thanks for the post, Chris! I think another very interesting discussion is whether or not we as societies should tax robots to make up for the loss in income tax that will occur as robots/AI replace humans. Bill gates has been a proponent of the view that robots should be taxed, while others argue that doing so will stifle innovation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/bill-gates-robot-tax-eu.html
Hi Chris, thanks for the post! I think that the implementation of AI in white collar roles will likely just enhance work efficiency. It does not necessarily mean that companies will lay off staff but instead realocate them into streams of production that previously did not have the requisite time. An easy example of this can simply be the introduction of new software that make things more efficient (as that’s what AI is best at doing right now). So introducing Microsoft Excel can allow a company accountant or financial analyst to focus more on company strategy and analysis, rather than menial work.
Cheers!
Chris, thanks for the post! Threats of AI for working professionals are always noticed and showed in different industries. Take financial service industry as an example, with the improvement in effectiveness and efficiency of accounting information system, the necessity of accountant and auditor are questioned by many employers. With the aim of minimizing operation cost, the increase in unemployment rate is highly possible to happen. Although at the current stage, the function of human beings is still hard to be replaced by AI in some way, with the development of technology, it is important for authorities to consider how to deal with the possible negative effect brought by AI threat. And personally, I don’t think the UBI approach is a feasible solution to the problem.
Fan MS&E 238A
Hi Chris,
You do make a strong point about the threat of AI. But, don’t you think that if regulated and applied with proper measures it could actually supplement the human workers. Though some menial jobs may be replaced, but it will also create a lot of new jobs and these new jobs will require a skilled workforce getting a higher compensation. So in a way inclusion of AI may even stimulate the economy and force people into more skilled work. Inclusion of AI in factories will increase the productivity and this will have trade benefits for a country.
MS&E 238A.